The speculation over whether Japan, faced with an unpredictable North Korea and rising China, might consider developing its own nuclear deterrence, misses an important point, argues Richard A. Bitzinger for the Straits Times. Yes, Tokyo might have the technical capacity to construct a nuclear bomb relatively quickly. But there’s a lot more to becoming a nuclear power than building the actual bomb.
“In the first place, Japan would need to test and re-test its nuclear capabilities. Yes, supercomputers can simulate some of the characteristics of a nuclear explosion, but ultimately Japan would probably have to conduct several nuclear tests, over the course of several years, to create a reliable nuclear force,” Bitzinger writes.
“But how would it deploy such a weapon? On aircraft? Japan has no nuclear-capable aircraft, no bombers or specialized strike aircraft…At the same time, Japan would have to build a whole supporting infrastructure for its nuclear weapons. Specialized, extremely secure storage facilities would have to be built at airbases and naval stations to secure nuclear weapons.”
“In the first place, Japan would need to test and re-test its nuclear capabilities. Yes, supercomputers can simulate some of the characteristics of a nuclear explosion, but ultimately Japan would probably have to conduct several nuclear tests, over the course of several years, to create a reliable nuclear force,” Bitzinger writes.
“But how would it deploy such a weapon? On aircraft? Japan has no nuclear-capable aircraft, no bombers or specialized strike aircraft…At the same time, Japan would have to build a whole supporting infrastructure for its nuclear weapons. Specialized, extremely secure storage facilities would have to be built at airbases and naval stations to secure nuclear weapons.”
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