Will Pakistan change?

Why Pakistan Won’t Be Changing Soon

The US announcement Thursday that it is suspending security assistance to Pakistan over its alleged failure to adequately crack down on terror groups operating in the country is likely to further fuel tensions between the two nations. But while the move has made headlines, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist at the Woodrow Wilson Center, emails Global Briefing that there are three reasons why the significance and impact of the Trump administration’s aid suspension shouldn’t be overstated.

“First, aid freezes to Pakistan are nothing new. After US forces raided Osama bin Laden’s compound, Washington suspended $800 million in military aid,” Kugelman says.

“Second, Pakistan has overcome these freezes before, and it will this time, as well—especially because it can turn to its deep-pocketed Saudi and Chinese allies.

“Third, don’t expect the aid freeze to have its desired effect of curbing Pakistan’s ties to terrorists that target US troops in Afghanistan. Pakistan believes critical national interests are served by maintaining ties to militants. The Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban help push back against a presence by India, Pakistan’s bitter enemy, in Afghanistan. So, for Pakistan, using non-state actors against its stronger foe is a powerful tool it won’t easily give up.

"Ultimately, it will take much more than aid freezes—think harsher measures like expanded drone strikes or sanctions—to induce changes in Pakistan’s behavior. But then again, pressuring Pakistan more may only cause it to double down. Either way, Pakistan will only change its ways when it feels that its interests are better served by severing its ties to militants. To this point, it has no incentive to think that way.”

Back to Geopolitics